Personnel up into the “1B" phase for vaccine distribution, meaning that D49 workforce members who want to receive the vaccine will have that option even sooner than initially projected.

Our main caution entering January is the factor we previously discussed—the possibility of a post-holiday surge. Strong encouragement, from our county health partners to our district board and administration, supports our plan to monitor for two weeks and then follow a staggered return to in-person learning. That approach follows the optimal medical recommendation, and gives us the best chance that when we open for in-person learning we can stay open.

14 days after the end of traditional holiday break would be the “optimal” length of time from a purely public health viral control perspective based on the incubation of the virus....a staggered start similar to what many schools successfully deployed in the fall is a very good strategy to give schools the best chance at success. If numbers continue to decline as they are now, these types of staged re-entries are effective as the most “at-risk” for transmission students are returning later during lower community transmission.

Dr. Leon Kelly: El Paso County Medical Examiner and COVID Lead Physician 

Letter to D49 BOE and area leaders

Public Health recommended the delay of the start of the spring semester to allow time for families who have traveled or attended large gatherings to ensure they have not been exposed/infected by COVID-19 prior to returning to the learning environment. A two-week delay allows for those individuals to quarantine for a full incubation period and thereby avoid spreading the disease in school and excluding students for a longer period of time. 

We at Public Health do not dictate to schools when they should start but work with schools to decide what works best for them and support them in that decision.  Dr. Kelly stated that to provide the best chance for in-person success, a delay in start or some other strategy including staggered starts as in the fall or testing modalities is strongly encouraged.   

Haley Zachary: El Paso County Lead Epidemiologist 

Letter to D49 BOE and area leaders

After consulting with county partners, our board of education and especially school leaders, we are proceeding as planned for beginning the spring semester. Although we are starting in E49 Orange, our plan is to stagger our elementary return to in-person learning beginning January 19th, along with a 50-50 hybrid for middle and high school students the week after. That means we plan to exit E49 by the end of January, and reestablish D49 operations with in-person and hybrid configurations. Per board direction and family preference, we will continue to offer E-learning options through the rest of the school year. As always, our plans are responsive to community conditions, so we may accelerate or adjust our plan if conditions warrant—especially if we detect increasing levels of community transmission in this post-holiday period.

IMPLICATIONS of E49 Orange

For students, the implication is that most learning services are delivered remotely, using online platforms and communications to facilitate instruction, interventions, and assessment. For some student groups, and for some specialized services, we continue providing opportunities for in-person, small group educational and other services.

For educators, most educational delivery is delivered remotely, but we will use the first two weeks of January to ramp up our on-site presence.

Practically, this means that most educators and other colleagues will return to working primarily at schools and worksites by January 11, while some work remotely with supervisor discretion and approval.

As we return to the spring semester, we expect to monitor some COVID-19 positive cases and some exposure to Tier Zero individuals. We know that our safety system, quarantine protocols and healthcare systems will protect staff and students, and we are better positioned to keep schools operating even as we emerge from the pandemic. El Paso County has incorporated the quarantine guidance from the Centers for Disease Control to their guidance for in-person learning (updated 12/22/20). That guidance is:

Safest option: Remain at home and away from others for a full 14 days. If you stay completely separate from others for 14 days after you were exposed, you do not put anyone at risk for catching COVID-19 from you. People who live in group settings like dorms, barracks, or homeless shelters must use this option. People who work with high-risk people, like those in nursing homes, should also follow a 14-day quarantine and contact their occupational health representative for further information.

Safe option: If you remain symptom-free for 10 days after exposure and don’t live in a group setting, it’s permissible to end your quarantine and continue to monitor yourself for symptoms for the remaining 4 days of the incubation period. CDC recently released data showing that there is a lower risk of becoming ill and passing on the virus at 11 to 14 days after exposure. While it is lower risk, there is still up to a 10% chance of passing on the virus after day 10. You must not be in contact with people who are elderly or at risk for severe illness for the full 14 days.

Testing option: The shortest option allowable for quarantine is seven days. To use this option, you must obtain a negative COVID-19 test on day five to day seven after your exposure. Testing is a point-in-time measure and you may still become ill with the virus and pass it to others after leaving a seven-day quarantine. For these reasons, seven-day quarantine with testing is the least preferred option and not recommended by EPCPH in most cases.

In no circumstances can quarantine be discontinued before 7 full days of quarantine have passed since exposure.

We anticipate that these new quarantine guidelines will significantly improve our ability to maintain staff and student presence for in-person learning, so we are calibrating our January plans accordingly. Consistent feedback from our community and our workforce is that a stable model of E-learning is preferable to unpredictable disruptions and shifts back and forth to E-learning.

HEALTH DATA
County health data has improved substantially over the past four weeks, with elevated levels and improving trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/covid19data-dashboard

On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, January 4, 2021: 

Summary Chart:

Key Measure #1:  14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating:  SEVERE RISK Level with Improving Trend
The Case Rate has decreased from a high of 1320 on December 3 to 480 today. This metric remains in the “SEVERE Risk" range (>350). Guidance from county and other public health officials is to continue monitoring for any evidence of a post-holiday surge that may disrupt the positive trend.

Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating:  CONCERN Level with Erratic Trend
The test positivity rate is at 9.13% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is beneficial that test positivity measure is stable or improving. The average turnaround time for testing is stable at 2.79 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal. As individuals return from holiday travel and seek precautionary testing, we anticipate that the total number of tests will increase, the turnaround time will increase temporarily, and the positivity rate may become more volatile, with short-term erratic patterns of increases and decreases.

Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: FAIR/GOOD with Beneficial (Improving) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations have decreased since early December is a positive indicator of decreasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.