- School District 49
- COVID-19 Updates & Resources
D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Jan. 19, 2021
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OVERVIEWKey measures of population health are all moving together in a positive direction. Over the last seven days, the case rate measure, test positivity, and hospital burden have all improved.In addition to the positive metrics, we also observe that nearly 46,000 residents now have “natural immunity” via recovery from infection, and thousands of residents are proceeding through inoculation toward vaccine-based immunity. Every recovered or vaccinated individual reduces the potential pool of future cases, and improves overall community conditions. With vaccination accelerating, we anticipate that we’ll be able to maintain and further enhance improving community conditions. We also affirm the Governor’s decision to move school personnel up into the “1B" phase for vaccine distribution, meaning that D49 workforce members who want to receive the vaccine will have that option even sooner than initially projected.Our major caution as we restart in-person learning is the pattern, observed in many communities nationwide, that normalizing school operations can correlate with increased community activity, mobility, and transmissions. Although schools are not a direct vector for increased transmission, with extremely low infection rates compared to the community, they may catalyze other conditions that do drive increased transmission. Because schools operate downstream from the community, we redouble our exhortation for all students, staff, and residents to maintain the same, effective, personal practices that have helped our community recover from the December wave of cases and illness.HEALTH DATA
County health data has improved in the last two week, with elevated levels and improving trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Tuesday morning, January 19, 2021:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: SEVERE RISK Level with Improving Trend
The Case Rate has decreased from 515 last Monday to to 451 today. This metric remains in the “SEVERE Risk" range (>350). Guidance from county and other public health officials is to continue monitoring for any evidence of a sustained surge that may disrupt the overall positive trend.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: CONCERN Level with Improving Trend
The test positivity rate is improved from last week (9.14%) to 7.15% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is beneficial that test positivity measure is stable or improving. The average turnaround time for testing is stable at 3.0 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal. As individuals return from holiday travel and seek precautionary testing, we anticipate that the total number of tests will increase, the turnaround time will increase temporarily, and the positivity rate may become more volatile, with short-term erratic patterns of increases and decreases.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: FAIR/GOOD with Beneficial (Improving) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations have decreased since early December is a positive indicator of decreasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATABecause operating in E49 reduced opportunities for on-campus transmission, and because of the two-week monitoring period after the holiday break, we are restarting our monitoring effort and will return to routine publication of school and district data on our dashboard.
January Return to Learn Plan
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As we bring our first semester to a close, we want to wish you a happy holiday season, and share a look ahead to our planned return to learn in January. We know the D49 Family does its best work in person, so we are determined to bring back in-person learning early in the spring semester. With the possibility that holiday gatherings and travel will extend our current level on the Colorado COVID-19 dial, our county health partners recommend we monitor health data for two full weeks after the New Year. That makes January 19 the best target to restart in-person learning.
We invite you to listen to an overview of our plan in this message from Peter Hilts, D49 Chief Education Officer.Like you, we can’t wait to see our schools filled with students and staff. The key for us is that when we come back in person, we want to stay back. We’ll stay attentive to county health conditions and re-populate our campuses in stages, just as we did in September, knowing that stability is just as important as speed.
Based on current trajectories and projections, our strategic sequence will go like this:
Week One:
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Jan. 6 - Staff will return to work under the on-site/remote conditions of E49 Red.
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Jan. 6 - District 49 will update and confirm our planned sequence based on county data levels and trends.
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Jan. 7 - Students will return to learn on remote status. Schools will use the first days of the semester to establish schedules and rosters for E-learning and to set a foundation for future in-person learning.
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Jan. 7 - Grab-and-go meal service will resume at all seven district locations.
Week Two:
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Jan. 11 - In the second week, we’ll bring staff back in person to manage E49 and prepare for students’ return.
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Jan. 11 - We will restart serving special populations on campus, and continue E49 for all students.
Week Three:
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Jan. 19 - In the third week (after MLK Day), we’ll restart our full-population, full-schedule in-person learning for PreK-2 students.
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We will continue E49 for all students 3-12
Week Four:
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Jan. 25 - In the fourth week we’ll add grades 3-5 to the elementary schedule.
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Jan. 25 - In the fourth week we’ll also reestablish the 50-50 in-person/E-learning hybrid for middle and high schools
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For PreK-12 students who choose E-learning, we’ll continue that service through the semester
*If county conditions degrade and county partners advise us it is too risky to return, we will announce that adjustment as soon as we get that guidance. Otherwise, weeks 1-4 will correspond to the four weeks of January and the dates above.
Several encouraging factors are building our confidence about this strategic return to in-person learning. After Thanksgiving, we didn’t see a surge in cases that would endanger our neighbors and overwhelm our hospitals. So, as current risk levels are slowly improving, we are counting on our community to lead us into January with stable or improving conditions.
We’ll continue with our safety system, the washing, disinfecting, masking and distancing that helped us keep at-school transmission to a minimum. We will also start the semester under new guidance from the governor’s back-to-school roadmap that reduces the impact of precautionary quarantines, and gives us better methods for targeted contact tracing. And, we’ll emphasize personal responsibility for symptom checking to make sure no one comes to school or work when they don’t feel 100%. District 49 is also working directly with county leaders and third-party providers to provide dedicated testing times for district personnel to complete free, as-needed PCR testing, the most reliable option available.
We also know the vaccine is coming, and that’s a source of greater hope for our long-term return to normalcy. Based on current planning, school staff are in priority group two to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. The two-dose inoculation takes four weeks to administer, and six weeks for an individual to reach full immunity. That schedule, plus the slow ramp up of available doses, means that we won’t really see the large-scale benefit of vaccinations until after spring break. Accordingly, we expect to maintain our safety system through the end of the school year.
With all that we’ve endured, and all that we hope, we trust you will have a true holiday break with meaningful and refreshing time for yourselves and your families. Knowing that promising days are ahead, have a wonderful holiday, and we’ll see you in the new year.
Sincerely,
Peter Hilts, Chief Education Officer
Brett Ridgway, Chief Business Officer
Pedro Almeida, Chief Operations Officer
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D49 COVID-19 Tracking Dashboard
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As the COVID-19 crisis has progressed, our ability to predict and respond to rising infection rates has improved. As a result, we are continuing to track the impact of positive cases on our students and staff as we conduct contact tracing, precautionary quarantines, and other protective measures.
D49 COVID Tracking Dashboard LINK
Please keep students home if they don’t feel well
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Dear D49 Families,
We want to share a friendly reminder that sending learners to school requires at-home health screening every day.
Along with the excitement of reuniting and getting to know each other in our return to in-person learning, we are already experiencing the challenges of illness in our classrooms. As we are seeing, even minor symptoms can have significant ripple effects to our return to in-person learning. Guidance from our partners at El Paso County Public Health supports our nursing staff as they assess children showing COVID-like symptoms at school, and also informs their appropriate response, which in some cases requires sending home cohorts of learners and school staff.
Parents can help! Please keep students home if they don’t feel well, or are experiencing symptoms in the following checklists:
Symptoms Observed or Reported:
1 or more MAJOR SYMPTOMS
- Feeling feverish, having chills or temp of 100.4F or greater
- New or unexplained persistent cough
- New or unexplained shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
- Loss of sense of taste or smell
2 or more MINOR SYMPTOMS
- Sore throat
- Runny nose or congestion
- Muscle or body aches
- Headache
- Fatigue
- Nausea, vomiting
- Diarrhea
EMERGENCY COVID-19 WARNING SIGNS include: trouble breathing, persistent pain or pressure in the chest, new confusion, inability to wake or stay awake, bluish lips or face. Seek medical attention immediately by calling 911.
Students should stay home if they are experiencing:1 or more major symptoms and/or 2 or more minor symptoms indicated on the table above.
This, and more useful information may be found on the D49 Nursing Services webpage. We encourage all of our families to become familiar with this process. Paired with our system of safety protocols, following these steps will give D49 our best chance at making this school year the safe and memorable one we know it can be.
Thank you for your time, understanding, and enduring trust.
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D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Jan. 11, 2021
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health have now diverged, and are not all moving together. Over the last seven days, the case rate measure has worsened, while test positivity and hospital burden have remained stable.In addition to the mixed metrics, we also observe that nearly 40,000 residents now have “natural immunity” via recovery from infection, and thousands of residents are proceeding through inoculation toward vaccine-based immunity. Every recovered or vaccinated individual reduces the potential pool of future cases, and improves overall community conditions. With vaccination accelerating, we anticipate that we’ll be able to maintain and further enhance improving community conditions. We also affirm the Governor’s decision to move school personnel up into the “1B" phase for vaccine distribution, meaning that D49 workforce members who want to receive the vaccine will have that option even sooner than initially projected.Our continued caution entering January is the factor we previously discussed—the possibility of a post-holiday surge. Strong encouragement, from our county health partners to our district board and administration, supports our plan to monitor for two weeks and then follow a staggered return to in-person learning. That approach follows the optimal medical recommendation, and gives us the best chance that when we open for in-person learning we can stay open. The data volatility referenced above is almost certainly evidence that some surge has happened, what we can’t yet determine is the magnitude or duration of that surge.HEALTH DATA
County health data has become mixed in the last two weeks, with elevated levels and mixed trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, January 4, 2021:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: SEVERE RISK Level with Improving Trend
The Case Rate has increased from 480 last Monday to to 515 today. This metric remains in the “SEVERE Risk" range (>350). Guidance from county and other public health officials is to continue monitoring for any evidence of a sustained surge that may disrupt the overall positive trend.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: CONCERN Level with Erratic Trend
The test positivity rate is virtually identical to last week (9.13%) at 9.14% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is beneficial that test positivity measure is stable or improving. The average turnaround time for testing is stable at 2.76 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal. As individuals return from holiday travel and seek precautionary testing, we anticipate that the total number of tests will increase, the turnaround time will increase temporarily, and the positivity rate may become more volatile, with short-term erratic patterns of increases and decreases.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: FAIR/GOOD with Beneficial (Improving) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations have decreased since early December is a positive indicator of decreasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATABecause operating in E49 reduced opportunities for on-campus transmission, and because of the two-week holiday break, we will restart monitoring district transmission over the next two weeks and return to routine publication of school and district data on our dashboard. -
D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Jan. 3, 2021
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health have now improved for 30 days in a row. Until this week, key measures, especially the case rate per 100K, had been unwinding at nearly symmetrical rates compared to the early winter rise. The peak of the surge was on December 3, so as we enter January, we are approaching the same levels we saw in early November. The improvement trend has decelerated as we enter January, so we are cautious about projecting those improving conditions into the early semester.
Personnel up into the “1B" phase for vaccine distribution, meaning that D49 workforce members who want to receive the vaccine will have that option even sooner than initially projected.
Our main caution entering January is the factor we previously discussed—the possibility of a post-holiday surge. Strong encouragement, from our county health partners to our district board and administration, supports our plan to monitor for two weeks and then follow a staggered return to in-person learning. That approach follows the optimal medical recommendation, and gives us the best chance that when we open for in-person learning we can stay open.
14 days after the end of traditional holiday break would be the “optimal” length of time from a purely public health viral control perspective based on the incubation of the virus....a staggered start similar to what many schools successfully deployed in the fall is a very good strategy to give schools the best chance at success. If numbers continue to decline as they are now, these types of staged re-entries are effective as the most “at-risk” for transmission students are returning later during lower community transmission.
Dr. Leon Kelly: El Paso County Medical Examiner and COVID Lead Physician
Letter to D49 BOE and area leaders
Public Health recommended the delay of the start of the spring semester to allow time for families who have traveled or attended large gatherings to ensure they have not been exposed/infected by COVID-19 prior to returning to the learning environment. A two-week delay allows for those individuals to quarantine for a full incubation period and thereby avoid spreading the disease in school and excluding students for a longer period of time.
We at Public Health do not dictate to schools when they should start but work with schools to decide what works best for them and support them in that decision. Dr. Kelly stated that to provide the best chance for in-person success, a delay in start or some other strategy including staggered starts as in the fall or testing modalities is strongly encouraged.
Haley Zachary: El Paso County Lead Epidemiologist
Letter to D49 BOE and area leaders
After consulting with county partners, our board of education and especially school leaders, we are proceeding as planned for beginning the spring semester. Although we are starting in E49 Orange, our plan is to stagger our elementary return to in-person learning beginning January 19th, along with a 50-50 hybrid for middle and high school students the week after. That means we plan to exit E49 by the end of January, and reestablish D49 operations with in-person and hybrid configurations. Per board direction and family preference, we will continue to offer E-learning options through the rest of the school year. As always, our plans are responsive to community conditions, so we may accelerate or adjust our plan if conditions warrant—especially if we detect increasing levels of community transmission in this post-holiday period.
IMPLICATIONS of E49 Orange
For students, the implication is that most learning services are delivered remotely, using online platforms and communications to facilitate instruction, interventions, and assessment. For some student groups, and for some specialized services, we continue providing opportunities for in-person, small group educational and other services.
For educators, most educational delivery is delivered remotely, but we will use the first two weeks of January to ramp up our on-site presence.
Practically, this means that most educators and other colleagues will return to working primarily at schools and worksites by January 11, while some work remotely with supervisor discretion and approval.
As we return to the spring semester, we expect to monitor some COVID-19 positive cases and some exposure to Tier Zero individuals. We know that our safety system, quarantine protocols and healthcare systems will protect staff and students, and we are better positioned to keep schools operating even as we emerge from the pandemic. El Paso County has incorporated the quarantine guidance from the Centers for Disease Control to their guidance for in-person learning (updated 12/22/20). That guidance is:
Safest option: Remain at home and away from others for a full 14 days. If you stay completely separate from others for 14 days after you were exposed, you do not put anyone at risk for catching COVID-19 from you. People who live in group settings like dorms, barracks, or homeless shelters must use this option. People who work with high-risk people, like those in nursing homes, should also follow a 14-day quarantine and contact their occupational health representative for further information.
Safe option: If you remain symptom-free for 10 days after exposure and don’t live in a group setting, it’s permissible to end your quarantine and continue to monitor yourself for symptoms for the remaining 4 days of the incubation period. CDC recently released data showing that there is a lower risk of becoming ill and passing on the virus at 11 to 14 days after exposure. While it is lower risk, there is still up to a 10% chance of passing on the virus after day 10. You must not be in contact with people who are elderly or at risk for severe illness for the full 14 days.
Testing option: The shortest option allowable for quarantine is seven days. To use this option, you must obtain a negative COVID-19 test on day five to day seven after your exposure. Testing is a point-in-time measure and you may still become ill with the virus and pass it to others after leaving a seven-day quarantine. For these reasons, seven-day quarantine with testing is the least preferred option and not recommended by EPCPH in most cases.
In no circumstances can quarantine be discontinued before 7 full days of quarantine have passed since exposure.
We anticipate that these new quarantine guidelines will significantly improve our ability to maintain staff and student presence for in-person learning, so we are calibrating our January plans accordingly. Consistent feedback from our community and our workforce is that a stable model of E-learning is preferable to unpredictable disruptions and shifts back and forth to E-learning.
HEALTH DATA
County health data has improved substantially over the past four weeks, with elevated levels and improving trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/covid19data-dashboardOn the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, January 4, 2021:
Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: SEVERE RISK Level with Improving Trend
The Case Rate has decreased from a high of 1320 on December 3 to 480 today. This metric remains in the “SEVERE Risk" range (>350). Guidance from county and other public health officials is to continue monitoring for any evidence of a post-holiday surge that may disrupt the positive trend.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: CONCERN Level with Erratic Trend
The test positivity rate is at 9.13% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is beneficial that test positivity measure is stable or improving. The average turnaround time for testing is stable at 2.79 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal. As individuals return from holiday travel and seek precautionary testing, we anticipate that the total number of tests will increase, the turnaround time will increase temporarily, and the positivity rate may become more volatile, with short-term erratic patterns of increases and decreases.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: FAIR/GOOD with Beneficial (Improving) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations have decreased since early December is a positive indicator of decreasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATABecause operating in E49 Red reduced opportunities for on-campus transmission, and because of the two-week holiday break, we will restart monitoring district transmission over the next two weeks and return to routine publication of school and district data on our dashboard.
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D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Dec. 14, 2020
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health have stabilized in the severe risk band, with some fluctuation and volatility over the past week. The current plateau is unpredictable, but unlikely to remain stable into the new year. Clearly, community transmission, infection, and case rates surged into the Thanksgiving holiday, but just as clearly, we didn’t see a surge coming out of that holiday. El Paso County continues in Level Red—Severe Risk based on levels and trends across the three key metrics of case rate, positivity rate, and hospital burden. All three indicators are at critical levels. Because schools operate downstream from the community, we are directly subject to severe risk conditions.IMPLICATIONS of E49 REDFor students, the implication is that most learning services are now delivered remotely, using online platforms and communications to facilitate instruction, interventions, and assessment. For some student groups, and for some specialized services, we continue providing opportunities for in-person, small group educational and other services. For students, there are minimal differences between E49 Orange and E49 Red.For educators, most educational delivery is delivered remotely, but we have directed principals and other supervisors to manage workforce schedules to achieve a maximum of 50% of workforce presence on site. Practically, this means that most educators and other colleagues will move closer to working on site two or three days a week, with some colleagues still working primarily or exclusively from the worksite, while others work primarily or exclusively from home.We are still scheduling administrators, professional-technical, and education support personnel to maintain in-person service for our public-facing mission, and to sustain work that requires presence at specific locations.We await new guidance from the Governor’s back-to-school committee that will incorporate protocols for quarantines, athletics, mask wearing, and advance guidance about vaccination schedules.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past 15 weeks, with adverse levels and erratic trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, December 14, 2020:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: EXTREME RISK Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has declined slightly from 1177 last Monday to 1144 today. This metric remains in the “Extreme Risk" range (>350).
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: HIGH RISK Level with Stable Trend
The test positivity rate is at 14.06% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has held between 14 and 15% for weeks. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.59 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: POOR/STRAINED with Adverse (Increasing) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations has increased since early October is an indicator of increasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
Although I have not previously included death rate data, that metric has become increasingly significant, not only because of the impact on our health systems, but also because death in the community is traumatic as it causes ripples of grief and fear. The ten most deadly days of this pandemic all occurred during the past month, so we are seeing increased mental health and personal impacts across our community and in the communities that make up District 49.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATA (Four-Week Lookback)
Rating: CONCERNING LEVEL with Declining TrendFor this measure, I will link to the district dashboard which captures and presents the data I have previously reported from a previous database.Although we remain in E49, we are still tracking and reporting exposure, transmission, exclusion, and quarantine data as a baseline to consider for our return to learn planning. -
49Voices Survey: E49 - Fall Semester '20-’21
On November 9, we launched a second phase of E49. Although we experienced very low numbers of in-school transmission of illness as we strictly followed our Safety System of Cleaning, Washing, Distancing and Masking, it became increasingly apparent we could not sustain adequate staffing to deliver in-person learning while following public health guidance on quarantines during a rapid, and prolonged surge of COVID-19 positivity in our community. We will maintain E49 into the start of our next semester, and we want to check in to learn more about your experience this year with E49.
We invite you to take a few minutes to share what you think about our effectiveness as we continue school year 20-21 and our current phase of E49.
Click here to take the survey https://bit.ly/ReturnToE49
We get better when we learn, so your feedback directly supports and leads to performance improvement. Thank you in advance for taking time to complete this short survey.
Best,
School District 49
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D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Dec. 7, 2020
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health have stabilized in the severe risk band, with some fluctuation and volatility over the past week. By mid-week, we should see a clear pattern for case rates and test positivity after the Thanksgiving break. That will tell us if we’ve leveled off or are still monitoring increased community transmission and impacts.El Paso County continues in Level Red—Severe Risk based on levels and trends across the three key metrics of case rate, positivity rate, and hospital burden. All three indicators are at critical levels. Because schools operate downstream from the community, we are directly subject to severe risk conditions. We have become familiar and fluent with discussing the impacts of community levels on our schools, but an article in today’s Gazette features insights from Medical Examiner Dr. Leon Kelly that elaborate the burden on our health care system and workforce. The live article (with updates and comments) is behind a subscription paywall, so the following link may not work for you. Because we’re an educational institution and have an educational purpose, I am also attaching a static version of the article for information and discussion.IMPLICATIONS of E49 REDFor students, the implication is that most learning services are now delivered remotely, using online platforms and communications to facilitate instruction, interventions, and assessment. For some student groups, and for some specialized services, we continue providing opportunities for in-person, small group educational and other services. For students, there are minimal differences between E49 Orange and E49 Red.For educators, most educational delivery is delivered remotely, but we have directed principals and other supervisors to manage workforce schedules to achieve a maximum of 50% of workforce presence on site. Practically, this means that most educators and other colleagues will move closer to working on site two or three days a week, with some colleagues still working primarily or exclusively from the worksite, while others work primarily or exclusively from home.We are still scheduling administrators, professional-technical, and education support personnel to maintain in-person service for our public-facing mission, and to sustain work that requires presence at specific locations.Based on new Guidance from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Colorado and El Paso County have authorized a strategic reduction to the duration of precautionary quarantines. From their communication:Safest option: Remain at home and away from others for a full 14 days. If you stay completely separate from others for 14 days after you were exposed, you do not put anyone at risk for catching COVID-19 from you. People who live in group settings like dorms, barracks, or homeless shelters must use this option. People who work with high-risk people, like those in nursing homes, should also follow a 14-day quarantine and contact their occupational health representative for further information.Safe option: If you remain symptom-free for 10 days after exposure and don’t live in a group setting, it’s permissible to end your quarantine and continue to monitor yourself for symptoms for the remaining 4 days of the incubation period. CDC recently released data showing that there is a lower risk of becoming ill and passing on the virus at 11 to 14 days after exposure. While it is lower risk, there is still up to a 10% chance of passing on the virus after day 10. You must not be in contact with people who are elderly or at risk for severe illness for the full 14 days.Testing option: The shortest option allowable for quarantine is seven days. To use this option, you must obtain a negative COVID-19 test on day five to day seven after your exposure. Testing is a point-in-time measure and you may still become ill with the virus and pass it to others after leaving a seven-day quarantine. For these reasons, seven-day quarantine with testing is the least preferred option and not recommended by EPCPH in most cases.In no circumstances can quarantine be discontinued before 7 full days of quarantine have passed since exposure.We anticipate that these new quarantine guidelines will significantly improve our ability to maintain staff and student presence for in-person learning, so we are developing our January plans accordingly. We are not moving to reinstate in-person learning at scale in December for two reasons:1. Consistent feedback from our community and our workforce is that a stable model of E-learning is preferable to unpredictable disruptions and shifts back and forth to E-learning.2. Current public health conditions are still so severe, with potential to degrade rapidly, that returning to E-learning might cause additional transmission and infection at a time when community resources are already stretched thin.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past 14 weeks, with adverse levels and inconsistent trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, November 30, 2020:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: EXTREME RISK Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has increased from 1149 last Monday to 1177 today. This metric remains in the “Extreme Risk" range (>350). Guidance from county and other public health officials is to be cautious about the current “leveling off", as some of that pattern may be related to disruptions in testing and reporting during a holiday break. Additionally, increased social mobility and interactions over the holiday may result in a final surge this week.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: HIGH RISK Level with Stable Trend
The test positivity rate is at 14.98% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.61 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: POOR/STRAINED with Adverse (Increasing) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations has increased since early October is an indicator of increasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
Although I have not previously included death rate data, that metric has become increasingly significant, not only because of the impact on our health systems, but also because death in the community is traumatic as it causes ripples of grief and fear. The ten most deadly days of this pandemic all occurred during the past month, so we are seeing increased mental health and personal impacts across our community and in the communities that make up District 49.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATA (Four-Week Lookback)
Rating: CONCERNING LEVEL with Declining TrendFor this measure, I will link to the district dashboard which captures and presents the data I have previously reported from a previous database.Public Health PerspectiveAs mentioned previously, the attached article, for educational purposes, elaborates the impact on our community health system. -
D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Nov. 30, 2020
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health continue to degrade, as they have for 13 weeks in a row, although the data levels and trends have become more volatile and erratic. El Paso County has entered Level Red—Severe Risk based on levels and trends across the three key metrics of case rate, positivity rate, and hospital burden. All three indicators are at critical levels. Because schools operate downstream from the community, we are directly subject to severe risk conditions. Based on our tracking and projection of those conditions, we transitioned District 49 to E49 effective three weeks ago today. Because we continue to offer limited in-person educational services, we are continuing to track and report instances of confirmed positive COVID infection, as well as resulting precautionary quarantines or isolation. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been low incidence of in-district transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have yielded positive results when practiced at scale and with fidelity.IMPLICATIONS of E49 REDFor students, the implication is that most learning services are now delivered remotely, using online platforms and communications to facilitate instruction, interventions, and assessment. For some student groups, and for some specialized services, we continue providing opportunities for in-person, small group educational and other services. For students, there are minimal differences between E49 Orange and E49 Red.For educators, most educational delivery is delivered remotely, but we have directed principals and other supervisors to manage workforce schedules to achieve a maximum of 50% of workforce presence on site. Practically, this means that most educators and other colleagues will move closer to working on site two or three days a week, with some colleagues still working primarily or exclusively from the worksite, while others work primarily or exclusively from home.We are still scheduling administrators, professional-technical, and education support personnel to maintain in-person service for our public-facing mission, and to sustain work that requires presence at specific locations.*As promised, we’ll address a question on the minds of many, “Will D49 move learning and working to fully remote?”The short answer is that we’ll remain in our current primarily E-Learning and 50% working configuration unless something major changes. If El Paso County experiences a further surge through the holiday season, and if the county declares or is placed in Level Purple: Extreme Risk, that would be closer to a “shelter in place” status and we would move even more of our learning and working mission to remote status. However, even under those conditions we would not completely lock down our schools and facilities, as meal service and some limited special services would continue. Even though most of our workers are not considered “essential workers” schools are categorized as “critical businesses” and so we may continue to calibrate our workforce levels and student capacity to meet our mission. Just as they did in early August, county health leaders are recommending that we delay any return to in-person learning at scale until we have data from the impacts of the holiday season. We will follow that guidance and determine our January learning and working configuration before we leave for the District’s Christmas break on December 18.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past 13 weeks, with adverse levels and inconsistent trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, November 30, 2020:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: EXTREME RISK Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has stabilized from 1162 last Monday to 1149 today. We remain in the “Extreme Risk" range (>350).Guidance from county and other public health officials is to be cautious about the apparent plateau, as some of that pattern may be related to disruptions in testing and reporting during a holiday break. Additionally, increased social mobility and interactions over the holiday may cause a surge in 10-14 days.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: HIGH RISK Level with Stable Trend
The test positivity rate is at 14.74% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.64 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: POOR/STRAINED with Adverse (Increasing) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations has increased since early October is an indicator of increasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATA (Four-Week Lookback)
Rating: CONCERNING LEVEL with Declining TrendFor this measure, I will link to the district dashboard which captures and presents the data I have previously reported from a previous database. -
D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Nov. 23, 2020
OVERVIEW
Key measures of population health continue to degrade, as they have for 12 weeks in a row. El Paso County remains in Level Orange—High Risk based on levels and trends across the three key metrics of case rate, positivity rate, and hospital burden. All three indicators are rising to critical levels. Because schools operate downstream from the community, we are directly subject to worsening conditions. Based on our tracking and projection of those conditions, we transitioned District 49 to E49 effective two weeks ago today. Because we continue to offer limited in-person educational services, we are continuing to track and report instances of confirmed positive COVID infection, as well as resulting precautionary quarantines or isolation. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been low incidence of in-district transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have yielded positive results when practiced at scale and with fidelity.
*KEY NOTE: With the governor’s announcement last week of changes to the state dial, including a new purple level for Extreme Risk, El Paso County’s indicators match the new “Severe Risk” red level. However, the county has declined to adopt that designation and is waiting to observe how the most recent mitigation measures might impact key indicators. County leaders expect to revisit the county’s designation next week.
Because the county public health conditions are so stark, we made the decision to move to E49 Red to provide clarity and predictability for the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks.IMPLICATIONS of E49 REDFor students, the implication is that most learning services are now delivered remotely, using online platforms and communications to facilitate instruction, interventions, and assessment. For some student groups, and for some specialized services, we continue providing opportunities for in-person, small group educational and other services. For students, there are minimal differences between E49 Orange and E49 Red.
For educators, most educational delivery is delivered remotely, but we have directed principals and other supervisors to manage workforce schedules to achieve a maximum of 50% of workforce presence on site. Practically, this means that most educators and other colleagues will move closer to working on site two or three days a week, with some colleagues still working primarily or exclusively from the worksite, while others work primarily or exclusively from home.
We are still scheduling administrators, professional-technical, and education support personnel to maintain in-person service for our public-facing mission, and to sustain work that requires presence at specific locations.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past 12 weeks, with adverse levels and adverse trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, November 23, 2020:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: HIGH RISK Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has surged from 954 last Monday to 1162 today. We remain in the “Extreme Risk" range (>350).
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: SEVERE RISK Level with Stable Trend
The test positivity rate is at 14.7% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.49 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: POOR/STRAINED with Adverse (Increasing) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations has increased since early October is an indicator of increasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATA (Four-Week Lookback)
Rating: Concerning Level with Declining TrendFor this measure, I will link to the district dashboard which captures and presents the data I have previously reported from a previous database. -
D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Nov. 16, 2020
OVERVIEW
Key measures of population health continue to degrade, as they have for 11 weeks in a row. El Paso County declared Level Orange—High Risk last Friday based on levels and trends across the three key metrics of case rate, positivity rate, and hospital burden. All three indicators are rising to critical levels. Because schools operate downstream from the community, we are directly subject to worsening conditions. Based on our tracking and projection of those conditions, we transitioned District 49 to E49 effective one week ago today. We completed our first week of E49 under Level Yellow, and we are completing the second week of E49 under Level Orange—a condition we will refer to as E49 Orange. Because we continue to offer limited in-person educational services, we are continuing to track and report instances of confirmed positive COVID infection, as well as resulting precautionary quarantines or isolation. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been low incidence of in-district transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have yielded positive results when practiced at scale and with fidelity.*KEY NOTE: We have heard clearly from state officials, as well as county medical and political leaders that there is no plan or political consensus to move El Paso County to a formal Level Red: Stay at Home designation. Informed by a consensus of unofficial and anecdotal reports, along with analysis of the mechanisms required to raise the county designation to Level Red, (state-county collaboration, local calibration, etc.), we project that El Paso County will stay in Level Orange at least until January. Although the three key metrics may all reach the levels specified for Level Red, District 49 should not expect a county declaration to follow, so we should work and lead based on our best determination of the next right steps. District leaders are actively evaluating the implications of shifting operations to E49 Red after Thanksgiving break based on county conditions, but we have not directed that adjustment.There has been some initial brainstorming about revising the Colorado dial to include a new level, (Level 4.5) which would be between orange and red (Burnt Orange?) but those discussions are still preliminary and non-actionable. If that discussion solidifies into action, we will notify the board immediately and adjust district operations accordingly. For now, we remain in E49 Orange.IMPLICATIONS of E49 ORANGEFor students, the implication is that most learning services are now delivered remotely, using online platforms and communications to facilitate instruction, interventions, and assessment. For some student groups, and for some specialized services, we continue providing opportunities for in-person, small group educational and other services.For educators, most educational delivery is delivered remotely, but we have directed most educators to work from school sites, in part to maintain availability for limited in-person services, and in part to maintain a physical presence at worksites that are still safe and effective.For other workers, most district services are provided in person at our district schools and facilities. Our administrators, professional-technical, and education support personnel are reporting to workplaces to maintain in-person service for our public-facing mission, and to sustain work that requires presence at specific locations.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past 11 weeks, with adverse levels and adverse trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, November 16, 2020:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: HIGH RISK Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has surged from 657 last Monday to 954 today. We remain in the “Stay at Home” range (>350).
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: High Risk Level with Adverse Trend
The test positivity rate is at 14.66% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is slightly elevated at 2.43 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Burden
Rating: Concerning Level with Adverse (Increasing) Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Although it is a self-reported measure with some subjectivity, the fact that total hospitalizations has increased since early October is an indicator of increasing burden on hospital facilities and services. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following case rates and test positivity by approximately 10-14 days.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATA (Four-Week Lookback)
Rating: Concerning Level with Unstable TrendFor this measure, I will link to the district dashboard which captures and presents the data I have previously reported from a previous database. -
D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Nov. 9, 2020
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health are now worse than the early, intense wave of cases, and are worse than the July surge in case rates. El Paso County is measuring a steady increase in infections and transmissions through September and into October. Because schools operate downstream from the community, worsening conditions out there are disruptive to learning in our schools and classrooms. We have had multiple closures and quarantines as a result of community transmission and so we have transitioned D49 education to E49. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been limited incidence of at-school transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have yielded positive results when practiced at scale and with fidelity.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past month, with adverse levels and adverse trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, November 9, 2020:Summary Chart:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: VERY HIGH Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has surged from 253 last Monday to 586 today. We remain in the “Very High” range (>100). A second dashboard configuration has re-labeled the levels using colors from the the Colorado Dial Framework, so as of last Friday El Paso County is in Safer at Home, Level 2 Concern—Yellow.
It is significant that our case rate has been increasing for a month and has returned to the very high band that we last measured in August. That level is very concerning, and the recent levels make us more vulnerable to rapidly rising case rates. For this update, I am showing the entire history of the pandemic so you can see how our current level and trend compares to previous surges.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: Adverse Level with Adverse Trend
The test positivity rate is at 12.1% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.25 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Capacity
Rating: Adverse Level with Concerning Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Over the last 14 days, EPC has tracked 81 hospitalizations and 5 deaths, numbers, that are concerning and tragic, and are beginning to stress the county’s current health capacity to care and support. County hospitals (this is a self-reported indicator) report this as fair/good level, but the trend is increasing in the wrong direction.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATA (Four-Week Loopback)
Rating: Concerning Level with Unstable TrendFor this measure, I will link to the district dashboard which captures and presents the data I have previously reported from a previous database. -
D49 Will Reinstitute E-Learning (E49) Beginning Nov. 9
November 6, 2020
Dear D49 Families, Students, and Staff,
We are completing a very disruptive week in our community and in District 49. Our region has measured thousands of new COVID cases including 35 confirmed cases involving D49 students and staff. Two thirds of our schools have active precautionary quarantines affecting nearly 1,100 students and hundreds of staff members. It is straining our students and their families as well as the entire workforce family, with teachers and nurses especially impacted by unpredictable overloads. The staff who remain are stretched incredibly thin as we cannot secure enough substitute teachers, and there aren’t enough adults to cover all assignments. Five schools, serving over 4,400 students, have been displaced into E-Learning with less than a day’s notice. We’ve also seen our first school-based outbreaks (two of them), and two cases of verified, in-district transmission. The three-stage pattern of upheaval is now evident and inevitable. Surging infection cases from the community flow into our schools, creating quarantines that deplete our on-site staff, and in-person learning shuts down. Our schools are losing stability, and community conditions are beginning to compromise safety. Therefore, District 49 will transition back to E-Learning (E49) for most students-- all programs, PK-12-- on Monday, Nov 9, 2020.
We understand and share the collective desire for more advanced notice about this transition. Unfortunately, the impacts of COVID disruptions accelerated so abruptly this week, that our timeframe to decide and communicate has been compressed. Rather than continuing to close in-person learning with less than a day’s notice, we decided to use as much of the weekend as possible for planning and adjustments. Every quarantine is disruptive, but switching whole schools to E-Learning with only hours to plan is chaotic for students’ learning and overloads our staff and families. The nature of the virus means we can’t predict which schools will go virtual tomorrow, but we can project that the number will multiply--especially by next Monday. We’ve passed the point where we can stay in front of this wave. It will overwhelm our district if we don’t reposition to the higher ground of E49.
Over the past 8 months, our community has experienced four waves in the pandemic, measured by the case rate per 100,000 on a 14-day average.
- The first wave peaked with an average case rate of 55 (per 100K) on April 6. That wave receded to 32 on April 30.
- The second wave climbed to 58 on May 26 and then receded to 29 on June 16.
- The third wave climbed to 155 on July 29 and then receded back to 53 on September 11.
Each of these waves demonstrated time symmetry, taking about as long to recede as they did to build up. We are now in the upslope of a fourth wave, with case rates/100K already over 500 on November 5. As of today, there are over 3,700 active cases in our community. This wave has been building for 8 weeks, and recent spikes in transmission and test positivity ensure that it will keep climbing for quite some time—possibly cresting through the holiday season and into the new year. When it does recede, this wave will take many weeks to return to the yellow or blue levels of Safer at Home. Since schools are downstream of the community, we don’t anticipate returning to stable in-person conditions until some time in 2021. As a result, E49 will be in effect at least through the rest of this semester.
Our parents, students, and staff have done a superlative job of keeping schools safe, but we’ve reached our limit. While we haven’t been perfect, our caution about symptoms and safety has secured 8 strong weeks of in-person and hybrid learning for families who wanted that option. We’ve built a foundation of learning and relationships that will serve us well as we transition back to E49. This is the decision we didn’t want to make and the announcement we didn’t want to draft, but we believe this is the responsible way forward - instead of rolling the dice and waiting to see which schools go virtual next.
The next several days will be confusing as all of us experience what many have already gone through, the short-notice transition to virtual learning. Learning will be disrupted, and all of our work will be impacted. Just as we did back in April, we’ll use the first day of E49 for students and teachers to gather materials and plan for next steps. That means Monday, November 9 will be a non-contact day for all teacher-directed learning—including special education. Students may keep working, but teachers and other staff will meet, plan, relocate where necessary and begin the transition process for all learners. Some class groups will change as we rebalance teaching loads and reorganize cohorts of students.
Our teachers and other staff are more prepared than ever to deliver quality instruction during E49. We learned a lot last spring, and we continue learning and adapting as we serve almost a third of our students who opted for remote instruction. Our plans for device distribution will look different, as we work to give schools more local control of that process. Our process for grab-and-go school meals will look different too, as we establish locations and schedules to provide free school meals. We already have great participation in our before and after-school program called Base49, but we will work to increase capacity and availability of that resource during E49. Sadly, the decision to prioritize stability and safety will also suspend any sports or co-curricular activities that cannot shift to a virtual mode. Nearly all of our Season A sports have concluded, and Season B sports don’t start practice until January, so we hold out some hope that conditions will improve enough to support those activities.
D49 is going virtual, but we’re still open for business. Our staff will continue working around the district and all of our schools, programs and operations will keep serving during E49. We will offer some on-site programming for students and groups that need in-person support, just as we did in late August, but we need to establish the best population and duration for those services. In particular, we will prioritize individualized services for students with learning plans, interventions for at-risk students, and core instruction support for our youngest learners.
As a district of choice, we are proud to authorize a community of excellent charter schools, each with its own governing board and unique community conditions. Although the shift to E49 will limit our district’s ability to provide a full suite of services, we will collaborate with individual schools and their leaders to support their decisions and plans.
We fully understand that this announcement does not have sufficient detail to fully guide our transition. For this weekend and the start of next week, we ask that everybody stay attentive for more information from departments and schools.
We thank you for your patience, understanding and trust. We will walk forward together with respect, care and our shared commitment to delivering excellent education in stable and safe environments.
Sincerely,
Peter Hilts
Chief Education OfficerBrett Ridgway
Chief Business OfficerPedro Almeida
Chief Operations Officer
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D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Nov. 2, 2020
District 49 Continues Safe Operations as Permitted Under Safer at Home Level 2.
Hello D49 workforce, parents, and students. With county population health measures degrading, El Paso County is now designated in Safer at Home Level 2, the middle range of five different designations on Colorado's COVID-19 conditions Dial (PDF Document)
The county’s explanation of the new designation is available as a press release at the department website. Within the guidance for Level 2, P-12 schools are guided to offer instruction that is, “In-person, hybrid, or remote as appropriate.” District 49’s Return to Learn model is already compliant with the guidance for Level 2.
In addition, the three key metrics we are tracking in District 49 have all reached their highest levels since April. Our understanding of how those measures interact, and the relative risks associated with those measures matures, as evidenced by changes in the county and state guidelines for levels and restrictions. As the crisis has progressed, our ability to predict and respond to rising infection rates has improved. As a result, we are continuing to track the impact of positive cases on our students and staff as we conduct contact tracing, precautionary quarantines, and other protective measures. To foster additional transparency and clarity about our in-district measures, we will launch a dashboard of exclusions and quarantines early this week.
Four things are still true today:
- District 49’s safety system is working to protect our students and staff. Although we have had multiple cases of COVID-positive individuals in our district, we have had zero transmission within our schools or workplaces, and El Paso County has not designated any D49 schools with a COVID outbreak.
- Under current conditions, and with our safety system fully in place, our schools remain the safest institutions in our community—safer than stores, restaurants, churches, and many other public places. Although COVID continues to come in to our schools, it has not been transmitted within our schools, and therefore schools are not a source of rising community rates nor does attending or working at school put anyone at significantly increased risk.
- Increasing case rates in the community are creating escalating quarantines—in some cases leading to a full-school transition to E-learning if a critical mass of students or staff are unable to come to school while on quarantine. While we have been able to sustain safe operations, the number of quarantines has limited our ability to sustain in-person instruction. Even though we may shift a school to remote learning, even without a declared outbreak, the disruption to school operations is nearly identical.
- Despite the disruptions of quarantines and closures, we continue serving thousands of students with safe, effective, in-person instruction. Although current conditions do not support increasing the amount of in-person learning, neither do they justify contracting or reducing the amount of in-person opportunities we are offering our students. Even if El Paso County were to move to Safer at Home Level 3, the guidelines for P-12 schools at that level support: “Remote or hybrid suggested, limited in-person as appropriate.” Because we already incorporate remote and hybrid models, along with safe and appropriate in-person learning, District 49’s current Return to Learn model is already compliant with the guidance for Level 3. Our best projection is that District 49 will likely maintain our current configuration through Thanksgiving Break, depending of course, on community conditions and guidance.
Our community, including parents and staff members especially, has voiced a clear expectation for as much advance notice of changes as possible. Therefore we will strive to provide two weeks’ notice of any system-wide changes to our learning protocols. Although circumstances beyond the district’s control (such as a governor’s order) may force action with short notice, D49 is committed to provide as much early notice and transparent decision-making as possible.
As always, we thank you for your commitment to excellence and your enduring dedication during this unprecedented season of learning. We will walk forward together with respect and care to ensure D49 is truly the Best Choice to Learn, Work and Lead.
Sincerely,
Peter Hilts
Chief Education OfficerBrett Ridgway
Chief Business OfficerPedro Almeida
Chief Operations OfficerOVERVIEWKey measures of population health are now worse than the early, intense wave of cases, and are worse than the July surge in case rates. El Paso County is measuring a steady increase in infections and transmissions through September and into October. Because schools operate downstream from the community, worsening conditions out there are disruptive to learning in our schools and classrooms. We have had multiple closures and quarantines as a result of community transmission. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been zero incidence of at-school transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have yielded positive results when practiced at scale and with fidelity.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past month, with adverse levels and adverse trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard Please note that El Paso County’s Public Health Department has implemented a major revision to the visualizations and data available on the public dashboard. I will incorporate some of those new visualizations below. On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, November 2, 2020:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: VERY HIGH Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has surged from 253 last Monday to 335 today. We remain in the “Very High” range (>100). The new dashboard configuration has re-labeled the levels using the the Colorado Dial Framework, so as of last Friday we are in Level 2 (Concern) of Safer at Home.
It is significant that our case rate has been increasing for a month and has returned to the very high band that we last measured in August. That level is very concerning, and the recent levels make us more vulnerable to rapidly rising case rates. In past weeks I showed the visualization calibrated to 14 days. For this update, I am showing the entire history of the pandemic so you can see how our current level and trend compares to previous surges.The degrading health trends in El Paso County have clearly accelerated, which does not support increasing our attendance percentage at this time. We will continue tracking this measure daily. Given the current levels and trends it is responsible to continue in-person learning at the 50% attendance level for MS and HS students. Our safety system has prevented transmission in D49 schools, but the rising tide of community cases is putting increasing pressure on our workforce and our overall ability to operate in-person learning.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: Adverse Level with Adverse Trend
The test positivity rate is at 8.1% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.2 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Capacity
Rating: Negative Level with Concerning Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Over the last 14 days, EPC has tracked 69 hospitalizations and 5 death, numbers, that are concerning and tragic, and are beginning to stress the county’s current health capacity to care and support. The county still reports this as an acceptable level, but the trend is increasing in the wrong direction.
DISTRICT INCIDENT DATA (Four-Week Loopback)
Rating: Concerning Level with Unstable Trend
As of Sunday, November 1, District 49 has tracked and traced 138 workforce incidents of known or suspected COVID symptoms, infections, or exposure at our district-operated and chartered schools within district boundaries over the past four weeks.
Of those incidents, 12 have been presumed or confirmed Tier Zero cases. Of those Tier Zero cases, 5 have tested negative and 7 have tested positive, with the remainder still monitoring symptoms. The following graph includes all Tier 0, 1, 2, and 3 incidents in D49 since October 5:
- District 49’s safety system is working to protect our students and staff. Although we have had multiple cases of COVID-positive individuals in our district, we have had zero transmission within our schools or workplaces, and El Paso County has not designated any D49 schools with a COVID outbreak.
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D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Oct. 26, 2020
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health are now worse than the early, intense wave of cases, and are worse than the July surge in case rates. El Paso County is measuring a steady increase in infections and transmissions through September and into October. Because schools operate downstream from the community, worsening conditions out there are disruptive to learning in our schools and classrooms. We have had multiple closures and quarantines as a result of community transmission. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been zero incidence of at-school transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have yielded positive results when practiced at scale and with fidelity.Video of El Paso County Public Health Press Conference on Friday, Oct. 23: VIDEO LINKHEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past month, with adverse levels and adverse trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard Please note that El Paso County’s Public Health Department has implemented a major revision to the visualizations and data available on the public dashboard. I will incorporate some of those new visualizations below. On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, October 26, 2020:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: VERY HIGH Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has surged from 179 last Monday to 253 today. We remain in the “Very High” range (>100). The new dashboard configuration has re-labeled the levels using the the Colorado Dial Framework, so as of this morning we are in Level 2 (Concern) of Safer at Home.
It is significant that our case rate has been increasing for a month and has returned to the very high band that we last measured in August. That level is very concerning, and the recent levels make us more vulnerable to rapidly rising case rates. In past weeks I showed the visualization calibrated to 14 days. For this update, I am showing the entire history of the pandemic so you can see how our current level and trend compares to previous surges.The degrading health trends in El Paso County have clearly accelerated, which does not support increasing our attendance percentage at this time. We will continue tracking this measure daily. Given the current levels and trends it is responsible to enter and exit fall break at the 50% attendance level for MS and HS students. Our safety system has prevented transmission in D49 schools, but the rising tide of community cases is putting increasing pressure on our workforce and our overall ability to operate in-person learning.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: Good Level with Adverse Trend
The test positivity rate is at 6.24% today, above the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.13 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Capacity
Rating: Good Level with Concerning Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Over the last 14 days, EPC has tracked 53 hospitalizations and 1 death, numbers, that while concerning and tragic, are within the county’s current health capacity to care and support. The county still reports this as an acceptable level, but the trend is increasing in the wrong direction.
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D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Oct. 19, 2020
OVERVIEWKey measures of population health are now worse than the early, intense wave of cases, and are worse than the July surge in case rates. El Paso County is measuring a steady increase in infections and transmissions through September and into October. Because schools operate downstream from the community, worsening conditions out there are disruptive to learning in our schools and classrooms. We have had multiple closures and quarantines as a result of community transmission. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been zero incidence of at-school transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have yielded positive results when practiced at scale and with fidelity.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded substantially over the past month, with adverse levels and adverse trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard Please note that El Paso County’s Public Health Department has implemented a major revision to the visualizations and data available on the public dashboard. I will incorporate some of those new visualizations below. On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, October 19, 2020:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: VERY HIGH Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has surged from 114 last Monday to 179 today. We remain in the “Very High” range (>100). The new dashboard configuration has re-labeled the levels using the the Colorado Dial Framework, so as of this morning we are in Level 2 (Concern) of Safer at Home.
It is significant that our case rate has been increasing for a month and has returned to the very high band that we last measured in August. That level is very concerning, and the recent levels make us more vulnerable to rapidly rising case rates. In past weeks I showed the visualization calibrated to 14 days. For this update, I am showing the entire history of the pandemic so you can see how our current level and trend compares to previous surges.The degrading health trends in El Paso County have clearly accelerated, which does not support increasing our attendance percentage at this time. We will continue tracking this measure daily. Given the current levels and trends it is responsible to enter and exit fall break at the 50% attendance level for MS and HS students.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: Good Level with Adverse Trend
The test positivity rate is at 4.93% today, barely under the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so being under 5% is good, but it is a matter of significant concern that the positive rating has been steadily increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test is stable at 2.12 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Capacity
Rating: Good Level with Concerning Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Over the last 14 days, EPC has tracked 60 hospitalizations and 1 death, numbers, that while concerning and tragic, are within the county’s current health capacity to care and support. The county still reports this as a good level, but the trend is increasing in the wrong direction.
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D49 El Paso County COVID Data Update Oct. 12, 2020
OVERVIEWAlthough key measures of population health are improved from the early, intense wave of cases, and are better than the July surge in case rates, El Paso County is measuring a steady increase in infections and transmissions through September and into October. Because schools operate downstream from the community, worsening conditions out there are disruptive to learning in our schools and classrooms. We have had multiple closures and quarantines as a result of community transmission. Although we have managed those disruptions well, and although there has been zero incidence of at-school transmission, we implore our community to stay vigilant and keep modeling the hygiene, distancing, and masking practices that have helped us make headway.HEALTH DATA
County health data has degraded over the past month, with mixed levels and adverse trends.
https://www.elpasocountyhealth.org/ covid19data-dashboard
On the three key population health measures, this is the status as of Monday morning, October 12, 2020:
Key Measure #1: 14-Day Incidence per 100,000 *Lower is better
Rating: VERY HIGH Level with Adverse Trend
The Case Rate has surged from 74 last Monday to 114 today. We have reentered the “Very High” range (>100). It is significant that our case rate has been increasing for a month and has returned to the very high band that we last measured in August. That level is very concerning, and the recent levels make us more vulnerable to rapidly rising case rates. The degrading health trends in El Paso County have clearly accelerated, which does not support increasing our attendance percentage at this time. We will continue tracking this measure daily. Given the current levels and trends it is responsible to enter and exit fall break at the 50% attendance level for MS and HS students.
Key Measure #2: Daily PCR Test Positivity (14-Day Average) *Lower is better
Rating: Good Level with Adverse Trend
The test positivity rate is at 3.73% today, under the public health target (maximum) of 5%. We want that number lower, so being under 5% is good, but it is a matter of concern that the positive rating has been increasing over the last month, matching the rise in case rates. The average turnaround time for test results has improved to 1.79 days. Due to logistics realities for collection, transfer to lab, and lab processes, any average turnaround under two days is near optimal.
Key Measure #3: Community Health Agency Capacity
Rating: Good Level with Concerning Trend
This measure is a composite of hospitalization and death rates, which reveal the intensity of infectious spread and resulting illness. Over the last 14 days, EPC has tracked 40 hospitalizations and 1 death, numbers, that while concerning and tragic, are within the county’s health capacity to care and support.
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D49 Community Update October 2020 & Survey
D49 Community Update from Chief Education Officer Peter Hilts, October 2020
Dear D49 Family, We are coming up on fall break! School year 2020-21 is well underway, and we thank you for working so hard as we wrap up our first quarter and continue our gradual return to in-person learning. We will maintain our current, full population model for elementary students, and our 50-50 hybrid for middle and high school students through fall break and for at least two weeks after we resume on October 26.
We invite you to join us for a message from D49 Chief Education Officer Peter Hilts, and take a brief survey to share what you think about our effectiveness as we continue school year 20-21 and our gradual return to in-person learning. You’ll find the link in this post, in your in-box and online at D49.org.
Thank you for your hard work, and your honest feedback.
Have a great fall break!
Survey link: http://bit.ly/49Voices_RTL
Public Health Data
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El Paso County Public Health COVID-19 Data Dashboard.
The data graphs in the the D49 weekly update come from the EPCPH Data Dashboard.
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CO COVID Dial Update 11-2-20
Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment: Governor's Public Health Order 20-36
COVID-19 Dial -
In-Person Learning in the Time of COVID
Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment: The costs and benefits of in-person learning during rising cases in Colorado
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"Doing My Part, Help Colorado Now"
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Colorado Department of Education Resources for Schools
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Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
